Anna Crockett
Modeling Adaptive Capacity of Water Law by Integrating Water Rights into a Hydro-economic Model: A Case Study of Instream Flow Policies in MT
Water is a critical component of both social and ecological systems. The uncertainty of climate change, through changes in water availability, compounds the stress on these systems, particularly in the arid Western United States. Governance of water use is another major driver of water availability that will determine the fate of future water supplies. Linking climate change with the legal system for allocating water in western states has been technically difficult, creating challenges for future water allocation needs and current planning.
Anna Crockett is a M.S. student at the University of Montana studying the effects of climate change and governance on water flows and use in the state. Colleagues at the University of Montana have developed a hydro-economic model for Montana that attempts to evaluate how changes in risk and uncertainty influence agricultural decision-making and how this affects the hydrologic system. The model does not yet consider legal thresholds to water availability such as the spatial distribution of water rights. Anna is integrating spatial water rights data with the model to improve model results by more accurately reflecting real-world water availability. She plans to apply this model to take a closer look at instream flows and the balance of water distribution between competing uses as water scarcity increases.